ePub Techniques of Scenario Planning download
by P. W. Cockie,John Chandler
More by John Chandler. A Sense of Belonging. Practical Business Planning.
More by John Chandler.
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by John Chandler, P. W. Cockie . ISBN 9780070845701 (978-0-07-084570-1) Hardcover, McGraw-Hill, 1982. Find signed collectible books: 'Techniques of Scenario Planning'. Founded in 1997, BookFinder. Coauthors & Alternates.
Scenario planning is a tool that can help with this regard (Schoemaker .
Scenario planning is a tool that can help with this regard (Schoemaker, 1991). Scenario planning is a disciplined method for articulating the possible futures that may evolve taking in consideration the most critical uncertainties that drive these scenarios (Schoemaker, 1991). Scenario planning is a tool that can help with this regard (Schoemaker, 1991). The chapter concludes with an outline of the book, which draws on experiences from collaborative projects that crossed multiple boundaries in the pursuit of SES science around the world.
Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers.
Scenario planning has been used by some of the world's largest corporations, including Royal Dutch Shell, Motorola, Disney and Accenture. Many organisations realised how misleading were predictions based on straight-line extrapolations from the past. The oil price hikes of 1973 and 1978 dramatically and painfully brought home how vulnerable businesses were to sudden discontinuities. The unusually smooth path of economic progress since the second world war had lulled them into.
CHANDLER, J. and P. COCKLE (1982) Techniques of Scenario Planning ( London: McGraw-Hill). LINNEMAN, R. E. and H. KLEIN (1981) ‘The use of Scenarios in Corporate Planning - Eight Case Histories’, Long Range Planning, vol. 14, no. 5 (October). DRUCKER, P. F. (1969) The Age of Discontinuity ( London: Heinemann). FEYERABEND, P. (1975) Against Method ( London: New Left Books). KLEIN (1983) ‘The Use of Multiple Scenarios by . Long Range Planning, vol. 16, no. 6 (December).
Scenario planning may involve aspects of systems thinking, specifically the recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create sometime surprising futures (due to non-linear feedback loops). The method also allows the inclusion of factors that are difficult to formalize, such as novel insights about the future, deep shifts in values, unprecedented regulations or inventions. Systems thinking used in conjunction with scenario planning leads to plausible scenario storylines because the causal relationship between factors can be demonstrated
Most books on scenario planning either entertain us with their stories of possible futures or delve into intensely dull details of scenario construction. Ringland's book has the virtue of avoiding these two extremes.
Most books on scenario planning either entertain us with their stories of possible futures or delve into intensely dull details of scenario construction. This wide-ranging book will suit both newcomers and veterans of scenario planning. Each kind of reader can pick out what they need from the four sections.
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