Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage is not an easy read, but it is an important one if you really want to understand why some knowledgable people are trying to warn us about the end of cheap oil. The author, Kenneth Deffeyes, is thoroughly grounded in his material on both the academic and the professional level, having literally grown up in the oil field, worked for some of the largest oil companies in the world, and having taught at Princeton University. He also has the more unique qualification of having actually studied under and worked with M. King Hubbert himself. The problem with his book, however, is that it is written as if presuming that the reader already has some background in both geology and statistics. At less than 200 pages, it is not a particularly long book, but it is rather dense in places, leaving the reader frequently wishing he could interrupt the lecture and ask questions before moving on.

That said, there is much to be gained from reading this book, even if you only truly absorb a quarter of what is being said. Deffeyes goes into great detail on why oil is found where it is and on the history of oil exploration and production, but most significantly he shows how it is possible these days to know whether there is or isn't oil to be found in a given area and why today there is only one area left in the world where a significant oil field could still be found (the South China Sea). And why, even if found, would not be enough to postpone the day of reckoning for more than a few years.

He also goes into detail showing how Hubbert made his uncannily accurate projection of when US domestic oil production would peak (in 1956, Hubbert projected that US production would peak in 1972 -- the actual peak year turned out to be 1970) and of how this method has been used to project when world oil production would peak (2003). This is where a knowledge of statistics comes into play, and one wishes that the editors had urged him towards some further clarifications for the lay readers. But nonetheless, you can still see how the projections have been made and the supporting evidence for why they need to be taken seriously.

This book was published in 2001. The peak year projected in the book for world oil production was 2003. It is worth noting that the cost of oil has more than doubled since that projected peak year. Deffeyes' most compelling warning about our situation comes at the end of chapter seven: "This much is certain: no initiative put in place starting today can have a substantial effect on the peak production year. No Caspian Sea exploration, no drilling in the South China Sea, no SUV replacements, no renewable energy projects can be brought on at a sufficient rate to avoid a bidding war for the remaining oil. At least, let's hope that the war is waged with cash instead of with nuclear warheads."

The focus of Ken Deffeyes' book is the impending peak in global oil production which is anticipated some time this decade (2001-2010). It will be the consequence of several factors, apart from rising world demand, including a decline in the size and number of newly discovered major oil fields located around the world since the late 1980s. The book reflects upon some of the more technical issues involved in why world oil is about to peak and likely to decline. Kenneth Deffeyes is someone who grew up with a strong family connection to the petroleum industry and he builds upon his subsequent experiences as an academic and teacher to examine the major technical issues underlying the impending decline in 'cheap' oil.

Deffeyes starts his analysis with how oil is formed and aggregates into pools within the pores of rock layers which comprise the earth's crust. This process he links to the unpredictability of identifying oil-bearing regions, and especially to producing the high-grade part of an oil resource. One of the consequences of the uncertainty underlying the geological and exploration activity is that when oil is found in commercial quantities the largest oil fields are usually found early in the discovery process. As a consequence, oil production from a newly-discovered region is likely to peak early in the history of exploration and production and decline notably thereafter. To overcome this empirical trend petroleum exploration must renew the resource by locating and developing new sources of supply, a process which the world has very few options remaining.

For an underlying thesis to his book Deffeyes points to the statistical observation made by his colleague in the petroleum industry M. King Hubbert who in 1956 reported that US domestic oil production was exhibiting a `bell' shaped statistically normal distribution. As a consequence, King Hubbert predicted (somewhat unpopularly at the time) that if this trend continued domestic U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. In fact, the domestic US oil production peak occurred in 1970. Deffeyes postulates, as his central theme that, like King Hubberts' 1950s prediction for the US oil industry, world oil production will follow a 'normal distribution' and thus is now about to experience the peak of global oil production with significant downside consequences. He supports this central thesis by showing how the various forms of petroleum production technology cannot alleviate any ongoing decline in oil productivity.

Deffeyes builds upon the argument that the underlying pattern of oil resource discovery, production and decline is evident in most oil producing regions of the world. He sees no future alternative but to maximise the development of high efficiency technology for oil use, greater use of cogeneration, and serious use of renewable and nuclear energy sources. The overall outlook produced by Deffeyes is not one of optimism but this may be a consequence of his focus on oil alone.

The greatest weakness in his argument is that he does not consider the importance of the most readily available substitute for oil - the supply of natural gas. If a global oil decline becomes readily evident then this will be the ultimate driver that makes the transition to natural gas and renewable energy sources such as hydrogen so much more attractive. The potential for widespread gas substitution is not covered by Deffeyes but for relatively gas-rich nations, such as Australia, the decline of the age of oil may be not be as bad as it could otherwise be. As such, Deffeyes' book is a useful insight into some of the technical aspects of the oil decline but not a complete one. The long-term oil situation may be serious if one limits one's outlook to just one resource (oil) but alternatives are available at a price.

Dr Ian Lavering

Adjunct Professor

Master of Business and Technology Program

UNSW

Review of Hubbert's Peak
This book was very enjoyable to read. The author presents the material in a very personal and "folksy" way that makes you feel that you are in his living room chatting with him, and not reading a dry text on oil production and oil reserves. His obvious familiarity with the realities of working in oilfields comes through effectively. On p.13 he says that when he drives past the smelly refineries in New Jersey he wants to roll the windows down and inhale. His chapters on the origin of oil, oil resources, finding and drilling for oil, oil fields, and Hubbert revisited were excellent. I used to be a professor of energy and environment science and taught courses in energy. I found this book very informative and mostly authoritative. I read it straight though in a few hours. I got so involved that I could not put it down.
On the flip side, I thought that the final two chapters on the future were a little weak. The author could have been more forceful in asserting that a world crisis is approaching and we are sublimely oblivious. Also, his continuing favoritism toward Shell Oil was a bit too parochial. His figure for solar photovoltaic conversion efficiency (10%) is low by a factor of 2.5. And I would have liked greater discussion on reserves, ultimate reserves, and projections of the graphs on pp. 143, 145, 147 and 148 to longer times.
Donald Rapp, Ph. D.