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ePub Reckoning with Risk : Learning to Live with Uncertainty download

by Gerd Gigerenzer

ePub Reckoning with Risk : Learning to Live with Uncertainty download
Author:
Gerd Gigerenzer
ISBN13:
978-0713995121
ISBN:
0713995122
Language:
Publisher:
Penguin Press; First Edition (US) First Printing edition (2002)
Category:
Subcategory:
Mathematics
ePub file:
1372 kb
Fb2 file:
1330 kb
Other formats:
mobi docx docx lrf
Rating:
4.4
Votes:
214

Learn to make such trade-offs wisely, not emotionally. Another difference from typical books on uncertainty and statistics is that he uses extensive data from the medical field, with particular emphasis on prostate and breast cancer.

Learn to make such trade-offs wisely, not emotionally. This results in an eye opening look into the medical field and anyone who is dealing with cancer or AIDS would be well served by reading it.

Reckoning with Risk book. Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy, while statistics are often presented to us in highly confusing ways

Reckoning with Risk book. Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy, while statistics are often presented to us in highly confusing ways. With real world examples, such as the incidence of errors in tests for breast cancer or HIV, or in DNA fingerprinting, and the manipulation of statistics for evidence in court, he shows that our difficulty in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome. The book will change the attentive reader's way of looking at the world' Sunday Telegraph.

Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy, while statistics are often presented to us in highly confusing ways. Gerd Gigerenzer's "Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty" illustrates how we can learn to make sense of statistics and turn ignorance into insight. However much we want certainty in our lives, it feels as if we live in an uncertain and dangerous world.

Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He has published two academic books on heuristics, "Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart" and "Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox" as well as a popular science book, "Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making".

Enter Gerd Gigerenzer, a German psychology professor with a simple brief: to help us to avoid coming unstuck when . In a society predisposed to fearing the worst, however, Reckoning With Risk may help to slow the ghost train.

Enter Gerd Gigerenzer, a German psychology professor with a simple brief: to help us to avoid coming unstuck when confronted with seemingly impermeable representations of risk. With admirable patience, he sets about explaining "mind tools" that we can use to interrogate faulty statistical methods and to iron out ambiguities in the presentation of statistical evidence. The book should be pressed into the palms of politicians, journalists, health professionals – and anyone who has ever read an alarming statistic. Видавництво: Penguin Books Ltd.

Volume 37, Issue 1. Reckoning with risk: learning to live with . Reckoning with risk: learning to live with uncertainty. Gerd Gigerenzer has a passion for improving statistical numeracy which is rarely encountered in the normally dry statistics texts. This book has been written for the general public, but if you find risk statistics difficult to interpret and convey, then this book is definitely for you. It is written in a gently instructive and well thought out style, and covers a diverse range of problems encountered in everyday as well as clinical life.

Gigerenzer, G. (2002), Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty, Allen Lane, London. Margolis, H. (1996), Dealing with Risk, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL. Meehl, . and Winkler, R. (1984), & forecasting in meteorology'', Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 79, pp. 489-500.

  • Although most of the examples are focussed on the medical field, this book makes Bayes's Theory easy to understand and apply. Gigerenzer also makes a compelling argument to use frequencies instead of percentages. I am an Engineer and understand percentages quite well, but have not realised/considered that the majority of non-mathematically endowed people do not quite grasp percentages as well as I think they do.

    Gigerenzer also shows how the presentation of the information can be used to makes something look worse/better than it actually is (relative vs absolute risk for instance). This will help me to sell studies to our review committees better. But it will also cause frustration when reading studies and seeing the lack of information to change relative risks into absolute risks.

    I would have liked to see more examples outside of the medical field and perhaps less emphasis on the dialogues "he said/she said" examples. Other than that, this has been a good read and is recommended for anyone interested in risk management and analysis.

  • People intuitively don't know how to deal with risk, or how to compare two risks, A vs. B. For example, (A) to treat a medical condition or (B) not to treat it. The news media constantly bombards us with statistics which "prove" something is dangerous, or which "proves" a drug works. But in reality the information totally misleads us by the way it is presented. Journalists love to report such stories because they want people to read their articles (so they get famous). But they have no idea how to put risks into perspective -- and they have no incentive to do so. Result: we end up worrying about the wrong things.

    Gerd explains clearly how to avoid such traps. He gives wonderful examples, such as the incidence rate of breast cancer, and the extremes that some women go through to try to prevent something which is actually very unlikely (unless your family has an actual history of it). There are many other examples in the book. Well, why not just take a doctors advice? He's the expert, right? The problem is doctors are forced to tell you the worst case scenario, and that's the one that gets our attention. Potentially bad news wakes you up, right? But they do that mainly to avoid law suits, not to help understand risks, so we are drawn to the wrong conclusion. For some reason, we expect doctors (and many other professionals) to be right 100% of the time. We expect certainly from them. But that's totally absurd! That's not the way life is. If you want to do what's truly best for you, personally, you can't just abdicate responsibility and blindly do something without understanding the risk trade-offs and coming to your own conclusion. Gerd teaches us how to ask the right questions so we can come to logical, sensible and balanced decisions.

    Like I said, this was the best book I read all year. I highly recommend reading it, and then taking charge of your own decisions instead of listening and knee-jerk reacting to information that, while true in and of itself, is almost invariably presented in a highly misleading way by journalists, scientists, doctors, drug companies, researchers, lawyers and government agencies. Everyone has an axe to grind, and no one (except Gerd) helps us understand how to properly interpret what we hear.

    Summary: There are only two things in life that are certain -- death and taxes. Everything else is a trade-off between alternative risks. To treat or not to treat. Two risks. Learn to make such trade-offs wisely, not emotionally. Read the book !!!

  • I work in the risk and reliability field. I have been recommending this book to both family and colleagues.

    This is not a conventional statistics book with equations and proofs. The book is about understanding uncertainty and is unusual in that it is not written from a technical perspective, which makes it a much more engaging read for most people. The focus is how to think about and understand what the statistic represents about the uncertainty being described. Mr. Gigerenzer does an excellent job of explaining his points using real world examples rather than mathematical equations and proofs. The examples are well explained and very clear. Mr. Gigerenzer also includes a full bibliography on his source material with suggested reads for areas of interest.

    Another difference from typical books on uncertainty and statistics is that he uses extensive data from the medical field, with particular emphasis on prostate and breast cancer. This results in an eye opening look into the medical field and anyone who is dealing with cancer or AIDS would be well served by reading it.

    Each chapter focuses on one topic, so the book also acts as a useful reference. In particular, the book contains the best explanation of Bayes' Theorum I have read and I have found myself refering back to that chapter on several occasions to explain Bayes' to others.

    I think this book, or one like it, should be required reading in this world where statistics are constantly referenced (and misused) in the media, by industry and the government.

  • Do we really understand what we read? The book makes you think, not just accept written facts. I recommend this book to everyone, specially MD and other workers in healthcare. It might help you to communicate with your patients and their relatives in more efficient way.